Mick Dittman: Only Bad Luck Will Beat Mongolian Khan
Former champion jockey Mick Dittman has teamed up with Sportsbet to give his insights into the Melbourne Spring Carnival.
The winner of 88 Group 1 races kicks-off with a look at Saturday’s Caulfield Cup where he says Kiwi Mongolian Khan has the Group One at his mercy.
Please credit Sportsbet should you wish to quote.
Once the barrier draw was completed it hardened my belief that Mongolian Khan will win the Caulfield Cup. Only bad luck will beat him.
His last two starts have been super and I especially liked his latest run, for third, behind Criterion in the Caulfield Stakes. He carried 58kgs under the wfa scale and drops to 55kg for the Cup.
He’s a dual Derby winner and loves the 2400m which is his pet distance.
The speed bump is the overseas horses, mainly the Japanese pair of Fame Game and Hokko Brave.
They are both very good, but Fame Game appears to have the edge. I liked the way he powered to the line in the Tenno Sho back in May.
That was 3200m and I’m not at all concerned about him tackling 2400m first-up. The Japanese style is to work them harder and longer, so fitness shouldn’t be a problem.
Jockey James McDonald would win on a broomstick at the moment. His Cup mount, Hauraki, has also been progressing well this preparation. Hauraki steps out to the 2400m for the first time, but he gives every indication the trip will suit so I rate him just ahead of the mares (Lucia Valentina and Rising Romance) to grab third.
Speaking of Lucia Valentina, she’s drawn out wide, which is probably why she’s a $34 chance. That’s way over the odds for mine. This distance is more her go, she’s well weighted, but will need luck.
Mick Dittman’s Caulfield Cup tips:
1. Mongolian Khan
2. Fame Game
Market courtesy of sportsbet.com.au
$4.20 Mongolian Khan
$9.00 Set Square
$11 Snow Sky
$11 Fame Game
$11 Rising Romance
$15 Hokko Brave
$17 Gust of Wind
$21 Magic Hurricane
$21 Royal Descent
$26 Our Ivanhowe
$26 Who Shot Thebarman
$34 Lucia Valentina
$34 Trip To Paris
$51 Grand Marshal
$67 Quest For More