Group 1 SA Derby at Morphettville is a Challenging Punt
The Group 1 South Australian Derby (2500 m) is the highlight of Saturday’s racing at Morphettville and it is anyone’s guess.
If we had to make some actual wagers on the race, we would be tempted to back Mr. Quickie, as he is the favourite, currently at $3.90 with Ladbrokes. The three-year-old gelding prepared by Phillip Stokes will have John Allen atop and the horse’s record suggests he is winning nearly every time he takes the track.
The disturbing element to backing Mr. Quickie is that his price has been drifting, despite having made 11 starts for eight wins and two placings.
We have to keep reminding ourselves that this is a staying race for three-year-olds at set weights.
We could take the superstitious route and tip Qafila ($10) as the only filly in the race. She has shortened from $21 when the market went up and has been back and forth between $10 and $9.50 since. She is well drawn in the seventh barrier in the field that currently sits at 19 since Grinzinger Star was scratched.
Chapada ($6.50) has the king jockey of Western Australia, W. Pike and in our view, Pike seldom takes a ride just for the fee, but this may indeed be the case since he is out of his preferred environments of Ascot and Belmont.
Trainers Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young think their horse Savvy Oak ($20) is a chance and they seem to have a firm grip on staying races. They have gone so far as to book Group 1 winning jockey Michael Walker. They think jumping on the rail will help their cause, but if we had a dollar for every time trainers touted their horses, we could take the easy route of simply backing everything in the SA Derby and hope for enough winnings to make up for the losses…