Caulfield Races Fall to Favourites Beyond Expectations
Statistical figures accumulated over years of Thoroughbred racing and thousands of races provide the information that the favourite horse wins about 1/3rd of the time.
Saturday’s meeting at Caulfield had nine races.
Five of the top picks won on the day, which works out to 55 or 56 percent, depending on how you prefer to round.
With the exception of the opening race, every race on the card was of Group 3 level or better.
Race number two went to the top pick, the Group 3 Kevin Hayes Stakes, when Crack The Code, trained by Mick Price, won from News Girl. Price had the bookend complete when his Zoubo finished last, despite carrying the price of the second line.
Another Price horse, Princess Of Queens, won the Group 3 Bellmaine Stakes as the $4.40 top choice.
Race four went to Chris Waller’s Nature Strip, winning the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes from $1.75.
The Group 3 Blue Diamond Prelude for two-year-old colts and geldings went to favourite I Am Immortal, also a favourite from $2.50
The next race was the Group 2 Blue Diamond Prelude for fillies aged two years and Anthony Freedman’s Lyre returned $26 for any who chose her over any of the four priced shorter.
The Group 2 Autumn Stakes went to second favourite Hawkshot. The starting price was second-favourite at $6.50, but it was an easy win of 3.75 lengths and the favourite, Social Spin, was over six lengths back.
Race seven was the big attraction of the day, that being the Group 1 C. F. Orr Stakes. Manuel ($21) was a surprise winner over five with lower odds, including James Cummings’ favourite Kementari ($2.50), in a race where there was less than a length between Manuel and the next four.
The final race of the day, the Group 3 Carlyon Cup, fell to Avilius, the $3.10 favourite.